Important dates:
(purple dashed lines) May 14: Stay-at-Home reversed; May 25: Memorial Day; July 4: Independence Day
(blue dashed lines) March 25: Stay-at-Home order; Aug 1: WI mask mandate
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Active cases: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going. Even given the testing lag, a conservative approximation is to use the total number of positive (diagnosed) cases across the last 10 days. We will go with this standard, along with a range from 10-14 days of active accumulation, and adjust as more precise information becomes available. 14 days corresponds with two-week standard in place in MN school decisions.
Estimated Active, split by Age group:
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 2341 | 25137 | 74 | 8 | 341 | 501 |
| October 11 2020 | 2393 | 25289 | 75 | 8 | 377 | 506 |
| October 12 2020 | 2400 | 26190 | 76 | 8 | 342 | 460 |
| October 13 2020 | 2454 | 26333 | 80 | 9 | 354 | 485 |
| October 14 2020 | 2471 | 26464 | 80 | 9 | 348 | 471 |
| October 15 2020 | 2508 | 26463 | 83 | 9 | 356 | 492 |
| October 16 2020 | 2558 | 26793 | 86 | 9 | 374 | 500 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 2 | 1.1 | 3.5% | 13 | 0.11% | 15 | 0.13% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 7.4 | 21.7% | 81 | 0.6% | 94 | 0.69% |
| 20-29 | 12 | 8.0 | 21.4% | 80 | 0.38% | 112 | 0.54% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 4.6 | 12% | 45 | 0.33% | 64 | 0.47% |
| 40-49 | 2 | 3.3 | 11% | 41 | 0.39% | 57 | 0.54% |
| 50-59 | 8 | 3.0 | 10.4% | 39 | 0.31% | 55 | 0.44% |
| 60-69 | 10 | 4.3 | 11.2% | 42 | 0.36% | 57 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.0 | 8.8% | 33 | 0.32% | 46 | 0.44% |
| All ages | 50 | 35.7 | 100% | 374 | 0.36% | 500 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 787 | 16174 | 31 | 0 | 202 | 265 |
| October 11 2020 | 812 | 16245 | 32 | 0 | 217 | 266 |
| October 12 2020 | 833 | 16461 | 32 | 0 | 223 | 278 |
| October 13 2020 | 859 | 16537 | 33 | 1 | 229 | 292 |
| October 14 2020 | 887 | 16653 | 35 | 1 | 246 | 302 |
| October 15 2020 | 959 | 16759 | 36 | 2 | 310 | 364 |
| October 16 2020 | 1017 | 16871 | 40 | 2 | 350 | 407 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 1 | 1.0 | 2.3% | 8 | 0.1% | 13 | 0.17% |
| 10-19 | 5 | 2.7 | 6.3% | 22 | 0.26% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 20-29 | 11 | 7.1 | 18.6% | 65 | 0.91% | 70 | 0.98% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 5.7 | 15.7% | 55 | 0.65% | 68 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 6.4 | 18.3% | 64 | 0.82% | 69 | 0.89% |
| 50-59 | 14 | 6.1 | 17.4% | 61 | 0.63% | 71 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 3.9 | 10.9% | 38 | 0.45% | 47 | 0.56% |
| 70+ | 6 | 3.3 | 10% | 35 | 0.49% | 43 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 58 | 36.3 | 100% | 350 | 0.54% | 407 | 0.63% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 598 | 9317 | 29 | 6 | 108 | 142 |
| October 11 2020 | 618 | 9321 | 29 | 6 | 120 | 152 |
| October 12 2020 | 631 | 9335 | 29 | 6 | 127 | 153 |
| October 13 2020 | 645 | 9849 | 30 | 6 | 129 | 163 |
| October 14 2020 | 678 | 10225 | 32 | 6 | 156 | 188 |
| October 15 2020 | 701 | 10313 | 34 | 6 | 179 | 203 |
| October 16 2020 | 730 | 10363 | 34 | 6 | 202 | 226 |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 3516 | 28683 | 62 | 10 | 386 | 526 |
| October 11 2020 | 3535 | 28681 | 62 | 10 | 330 | 488 |
| October 12 2020 | 3566 | 28705 | 62 | 10 | 321 | 511 |
| October 13 2020 | 3587 | 28801 | 67 | 11 | 303 | 492 |
| October 14 2020 | 3605 | 28946 | 67 | 11 | 306 | 475 |
| October 15 2020 | 3657 | 29008 | 71 | 11 | 321 | 452 |
| October 16 2020 | 3718 | 29103 | 72 | 12 | 345 | 473 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.0 | 3.2% | 11 | 0.09% | 11 | 0.09% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 4.3 | 13% | 45 | 0.27% | 68 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 13 | 9.0 | 25.8% | 89 | 0.42% | 130 | 0.61% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 4.3 | 11.3% | 39 | 0.29% | 53 | 0.39% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 4.1 | 11.6% | 40 | 0.29% | 48 | 0.35% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 3.0 | 10.7% | 37 | 0.26% | 47 | 0.33% |
| 60-69 | 16 | 5.0 | 15.1% | 52 | 0.37% | 63 | 0.44% |
| 70+ | 4 | 2.4 | 9.3% | 32 | 0.25% | 53 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 61 | 33.1 | 100% | 345 | 0.29% | 473 | 0.4% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 11240 | 208579 | 421 | 43 | 1111 | 1752 |
| October 11 2020 | 11421 | 208622 | 426 | 43 | 1220 | 1814 |
| October 12 2020 | 11585 | 209269 | 430 | 43 | 1368 | 1822 |
| October 13 2020 | 11693 | 210210 | 434 | 45 | 1354 | 1836 |
| October 14 2020 | 11855 | 211170 | 444 | 46 | 1403 | 1726 |
| October 15 2020 | 12072 | 212443 | 450 | 46 | 1558 | 1871 |
| October 16 2020 | 12296 | 214057 | 450 | 46 | 1625 | 2079 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 8.1 | 4.6% | 75 | 0.12% | 99 | 0.16% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 25.7 | 14.8% | 240 | 0.34% | 301 | 0.42% |
| 20-29 | 47 | 39.6 | 22.6% | 367 | 0.35% | 462 | 0.44% |
| 30-39 | 39 | 30.7 | 16.3% | 265 | 0.35% | 332 | 0.43% |
| 40-49 | 36 | 26.7 | 14.8% | 241 | 0.37% | 298 | 0.45% |
| 50-59 | 29 | 23.3 | 12.7% | 206 | 0.31% | 271 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 22 | 17.3 | 8.9% | 145 | 0.27% | 199 | 0.36% |
| 70+ | 18 | 8.7 | 5.3% | 86 | 0.17% | 117 | 0.24% |
| All ages | 224 | 180.1 | 100% | 1625 | 0.3% | 2079 | 0.38% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 10 2020 | 147560 | 1530306 | 8319 | 1458 | 25286 | 33915 |
| October 11 2020 | 150236 | 1537877 | 8398 | 1465 | 25075 | 34374 |
| October 12 2020 | 152192 | 1545692 | 8454 | 1474 | 24286 | 34604 |
| October 13 2020 | 155471 | 1556954 | 8601 | 1508 | 24673 | 35516 |
| October 14 2020 | 158578 | 1568389 | 8754 | 1536 | 25915 | 36304 |
| October 15 2020 | 162325 | 1579844 | 8892 | 1553 | 27966 | 37164 |
| October 16 2020 | 166186 | 1590569 | 9027 | 1574 | 29807 | 38280 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 125 | 104.9 | 3.4% | 1001 | 0.16% | 1284 | 0.2% |
| 10-19 | 369 | 290.9 | 9.4% | 2795 | 0.37% | 3567 | 0.47% |
| 20-29 | 671 | 527.1 | 17.4% | 5184 | 0.68% | 6694 | 0.88% |
| 30-39 | 629 | 490.0 | 16.1% | 4787 | 0.63% | 6098 | 0.81% |
| 40-49 | 556 | 439.1 | 14.7% | 4389 | 0.63% | 5667 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 646 | 519.6 | 16.8% | 4994 | 0.61% | 6443 | 0.79% |
| 60-69 | 448 | 368.3 | 12.2% | 3650 | 0.48% | 4710 | 0.62% |
| 70+ | 417 | 312.7 | 10.1% | 3007 | 0.47% | 3817 | 0.6% |
| All ages | 3861 | 3052.6 | 100% | 29807 | 0.51% | 38280 | 0.66% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 47.8 | 69.1 | 53.5 | 35.7 | 30.3 | 11.4% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 62.9 | 36.3 | 13.4 | 24% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 22.1 | 6.3 | 12.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 | 41.1 | 61.1 | 33.1 | 40.1 | 36.1% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 38 | 42.4 | 44.5 | 180.1 | 107.3 | 16.5% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.7 | 47.1 | 88.4 | 3052.6 | 2395.9 | 22.9% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 17.8 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.38 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2020-11-06 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 1693"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges